I am not afraid of flying. However, when I am on a plane there is the nagging feeling that being 30,000 feet above the ground is not necessarily a good thing. If anything should go wrong with the engine or wings or whatever, then my trip to the ground will likely take the rest of my life. Not only are there those mechanical issues, but the pilot has to be perfect on the landing and take off so that the passengers do not experience the joy of burning jet fuel. Luckily my concern with the human aspect of flying all but vanished on my return from a conference in Las Vegas because I suddenly realized that flying a plane must be one of the easiest possible things to do.
There are over 28,000 commercial flights per day in the united states. I assume that since I do not hear massive reports of planes dropping all across the country, that there is less than 1 plane crash per day. However, if a plane crashed every day, the odds of having a safe flight would still be 27,999:1. Those are still good odds. You could fly every day and average one crash every 76 years of your life.
While on my descent into Richmond International Airport, I began to wonder: how hard is landing a plane if 28,000 planes are landed every day without major issue. Pilots that have gone through years of training will, on an average day, land 28,000 out of 28,000 attempts. What possible actions do you think that you could do 28,000 times out of 28,000 attempts? In the several hundered words that I have typed in this blog post, I have made and corrected several typos (and undoubtedly failed to notice others). My typing accuracy is at its highest 98%. It would seem that pilots land airplanes with a higher degree of success than I type the words that I am thinking.
That, however, is not a very fair assessment. Pilots train to fly and land planes. I do not train to type. The comparison that I thought of was of basketball players. Suppose I took a professional basketball player and had him do a layup once a minute for eight hours a day (and assume that he never got fatigued). That player would have to go over 58 days in a row without missing in order to make 28,000 consecutive layups. I doubt that the best basketball players in the world would not be capable of getting close to that.
So which is harder: making a layup or landing a plane? I think that if my life depended on doing one of the two, I would at least seriously consider landing a plane.
- Jon
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The Cost of Driving
In my last post I mentioned the cost of driving. The reason that this is important is because I believe that very few people take the time to think about what is involved with everyday trips. I drove to the bank the other day and had to park at a meter. At first, I was a little ticked off that I had to pay 35 cents in order to park for a couple minutes to deposit some checks. Then I realized that I hap probably spent more than that in gas money to go to the bank. That was money that I spent every time I drove and rarely ever thought about.
On a 25 mile trip to school, I would pass through a $1 worth of tolls. My car gets 25 miles to the gallon. Gas costs $3.50. So for that trip, I would pay 3.5 times the money of the tolls in gas, but would only be upset about the $1 in tolls. And that only counts gas money.
Here are my calculations on how much it costs to drive a new car over its life:
I buy a $20,000 car and expect it to last 10 years and 150,000 miles (I do not drive that much, but it makes easy math...and some people do drive that much). The car gets 30 miles to the gallon and will need $5,000 in maintenance over the 10 years it lasts (oil changes, repairs, new tires, realignment, etc.). Insurance for the car costs $500 every six months. The total cost for that car is $20,000 + $5,000 + $10,000 = $35,000. The cost per mile just to own and keep up the car is $35,000/150,000 = 23.3 cents a mile. Gas is $3.50 a gallon and the car gets 30 miles a gallon. That is $3.50/30 = 11.6 cents a mile. That adds up to 34 cents a mile.
When my then girlfriend (now wife) was looking for a new apartment, I convinced her that it would be beneficial to move downtown and close to work. Previously she was driving 30 miles a day every day. In a typical 30 day month, that was 900 miles. At 34 cents a mile, that equals $306 dollars a month. Granted, not all of that money is saved. If you own a car you will still pay insurance and the purchase price of the car. To simplify, you can really just do the simple math by looking only at gas. Still, looking at gas only, my wife would save $104 dollars a month. In a year that is $1248. Plus there is the added bonus of the car lasting longer and the cost of insurance likely being lessened.
I knew someone that drove 30 miles to work a nearly minimum wage job. I think he made $8.50 an hour. In a month, to go those 60 miles he would spend $7 in gas alone. That is 49 minutes worth of work that was spent paying for his travel to and from work. If he worked only 8 hour shifts, then 10% of all the money he made at that job would go to transportation to that job. Alternatively, if he had a job that he could walk to that paid him $7.65 an hour he would have broken even...and saved himself the time it took to drive 60 miles.
To sum up...driving costs money. If you have to go somewhere, then think about the cost of getting there. It probably wont keep you from travelling, but it can have a big impact if it you are considering where to live and what route to take to work (avoiding tolls can be costly).
- Jon
On a 25 mile trip to school, I would pass through a $1 worth of tolls. My car gets 25 miles to the gallon. Gas costs $3.50. So for that trip, I would pay 3.5 times the money of the tolls in gas, but would only be upset about the $1 in tolls. And that only counts gas money.
Here are my calculations on how much it costs to drive a new car over its life:
I buy a $20,000 car and expect it to last 10 years and 150,000 miles (I do not drive that much, but it makes easy math...and some people do drive that much). The car gets 30 miles to the gallon and will need $5,000 in maintenance over the 10 years it lasts (oil changes, repairs, new tires, realignment, etc.). Insurance for the car costs $500 every six months. The total cost for that car is $20,000 + $5,000 + $10,000 = $35,000. The cost per mile just to own and keep up the car is $35,000/150,000 = 23.3 cents a mile. Gas is $3.50 a gallon and the car gets 30 miles a gallon. That is $3.50/30 = 11.6 cents a mile. That adds up to 34 cents a mile.
When my then girlfriend (now wife) was looking for a new apartment, I convinced her that it would be beneficial to move downtown and close to work. Previously she was driving 30 miles a day every day. In a typical 30 day month, that was 900 miles. At 34 cents a mile, that equals $306 dollars a month. Granted, not all of that money is saved. If you own a car you will still pay insurance and the purchase price of the car. To simplify, you can really just do the simple math by looking only at gas. Still, looking at gas only, my wife would save $104 dollars a month. In a year that is $1248. Plus there is the added bonus of the car lasting longer and the cost of insurance likely being lessened.
I knew someone that drove 30 miles to work a nearly minimum wage job. I think he made $8.50 an hour. In a month, to go those 60 miles he would spend $7 in gas alone. That is 49 minutes worth of work that was spent paying for his travel to and from work. If he worked only 8 hour shifts, then 10% of all the money he made at that job would go to transportation to that job. Alternatively, if he had a job that he could walk to that paid him $7.65 an hour he would have broken even...and saved himself the time it took to drive 60 miles.
To sum up...driving costs money. If you have to go somewhere, then think about the cost of getting there. It probably wont keep you from travelling, but it can have a big impact if it you are considering where to live and what route to take to work (avoiding tolls can be costly).
- Jon
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Driving Me Crazy
Ok, so the title is more for hyperbole than anything else, but this is a topic that I think a lot of people get completely wrong.
So here is the question: If you are in a situation where gas prices keep going up, then do you fill up on gas more often or less often? What if gas prices are dropping?
I was bothered by this back in 2007 and 2009 when gas prices shot up and then later dropped dramatically. When prices went up, people would hold off buying gas until their car was running on empty. When prices went down, people would fill up when their car was at half a tank. Keep in mind that by people, I mean the people in my friend group that in the first instance were complaining about the prices and in the second instance were completely giddy. I have not done a substantial survey, but I will for the purposes of this article assume that is the norm for the country.
My stance is that when gas prices are consistently rising, it is money saving to buy gas as often as possible and when gas prices are dropping it is money saving to buy gas when you are much lower (but still have enough to ensure that you will at least make it to the gas station). Of course, if gas prices are unpredictable, then go ahead and buy whenever you want.
Here is how I conceptualize the issue: first, assume that gas prices are going up regularly. I have a full tank now. If I drive until I am at a half a tank I will fill up at price X/gallon. If I drive again until I am at a half a tank, I will fill up with price (X + N)/gallon, with N being the price difference between what gas was the first time I filled up and the second time I filled up. If instead of doing that, I drive my filled up car until I am at empty and then fill up completely, I will have filled up the entire gas tank with (X+N)/gallon. The increase in cost for waiting to fill up the tank is 0.5N/gallon x the number of gallons in my tank. This is derived by (X+N)/gallon - [0.5(X+N)/gallon + 0.5X/gallon] = (X+N)/gallon - (X+0.5N)/gallon = 0.5N/gallon.
If N is negative (price is decreasing) then additional cost by waiting is actually a savings of 0.5N/gallon.
I drive a Ford Taurus with a 14 gallon tank. Gas is initially at $3.00 a gallon and is going up at a rate of $0.05 a week. My tank of gas lasts two weeks. I start with a full tank of gas. If I gas up every week, then next week I will spend $21.35 to fill it up. The next week I will spend $21.70. Alternatively, if I gas up every other week, then I spend $43.40 to fill it up. I spent an extra 35 cents by waiting that extra week. It works the same was, but oppositely, if the price is decreasing by 5 cents a week.
I do realize that 35 cents does not mean anything, but having so many smart people believe that they are saving money by not spending it on gas until the last minute or saving money by buying gas frequently when it is cheap upsets me.
- Jon
Extra thought 1: Try to think of the cost of gas in your trips not when you fill up your tank, but when you make each trip. Now figure out the cost of a trip to the store to buy a single item. I may do a post on this thought later.
Extra thought 2: Since you pay for gas before you use it, in a world with a flat gas rate, the only time the amount of gas in your car makes a difference is when your car dies and you have to get rid of it. In which case you have wasted money on whatever volume of gas is left in the car. Otherwise, it never mattered if you waited until the last second tp fill up or did so at a quarter or half a tank. Personally, I usually wait until I am at about an eighth of a tank and do not worry about the cost.
So here is the question: If you are in a situation where gas prices keep going up, then do you fill up on gas more often or less often? What if gas prices are dropping?
I was bothered by this back in 2007 and 2009 when gas prices shot up and then later dropped dramatically. When prices went up, people would hold off buying gas until their car was running on empty. When prices went down, people would fill up when their car was at half a tank. Keep in mind that by people, I mean the people in my friend group that in the first instance were complaining about the prices and in the second instance were completely giddy. I have not done a substantial survey, but I will for the purposes of this article assume that is the norm for the country.
My stance is that when gas prices are consistently rising, it is money saving to buy gas as often as possible and when gas prices are dropping it is money saving to buy gas when you are much lower (but still have enough to ensure that you will at least make it to the gas station). Of course, if gas prices are unpredictable, then go ahead and buy whenever you want.
Here is how I conceptualize the issue: first, assume that gas prices are going up regularly. I have a full tank now. If I drive until I am at a half a tank I will fill up at price X/gallon. If I drive again until I am at a half a tank, I will fill up with price (X + N)/gallon, with N being the price difference between what gas was the first time I filled up and the second time I filled up. If instead of doing that, I drive my filled up car until I am at empty and then fill up completely, I will have filled up the entire gas tank with (X+N)/gallon. The increase in cost for waiting to fill up the tank is 0.5N/gallon x the number of gallons in my tank. This is derived by (X+N)/gallon - [0.5(X+N)/gallon + 0.5X/gallon] = (X+N)/gallon - (X+0.5N)/gallon = 0.5N/gallon.
If N is negative (price is decreasing) then additional cost by waiting is actually a savings of 0.5N/gallon.
I drive a Ford Taurus with a 14 gallon tank. Gas is initially at $3.00 a gallon and is going up at a rate of $0.05 a week. My tank of gas lasts two weeks. I start with a full tank of gas. If I gas up every week, then next week I will spend $21.35 to fill it up. The next week I will spend $21.70. Alternatively, if I gas up every other week, then I spend $43.40 to fill it up. I spent an extra 35 cents by waiting that extra week. It works the same was, but oppositely, if the price is decreasing by 5 cents a week.
I do realize that 35 cents does not mean anything, but having so many smart people believe that they are saving money by not spending it on gas until the last minute or saving money by buying gas frequently when it is cheap upsets me.
- Jon
Extra thought 1: Try to think of the cost of gas in your trips not when you fill up your tank, but when you make each trip. Now figure out the cost of a trip to the store to buy a single item. I may do a post on this thought later.
Extra thought 2: Since you pay for gas before you use it, in a world with a flat gas rate, the only time the amount of gas in your car makes a difference is when your car dies and you have to get rid of it. In which case you have wasted money on whatever volume of gas is left in the car. Otherwise, it never mattered if you waited until the last second tp fill up or did so at a quarter or half a tank. Personally, I usually wait until I am at about an eighth of a tank and do not worry about the cost.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Presedential Voting Math
I am not a big fan of politics. I follow it very loosely and generally cringe whenever I read a news article that is leaned towards one side or another. I vote because it is the civic thing to do and I usually have the time, but I do not think it is that big a deal if people do not vote. Most people when I tell them this are rather shocked...probably because I come across as a model citizen, and model citizens know the value of voting, right? Unfortunately, I also do a lot of random math in my head. Here is some math to determine how much your vote counts.
Before you go and say that every vote counts, I will first quell that by saying that you are wrong. Since we have the electoral college, your vote does not count unless you live in a swing state. New York, California, Massachusetts, Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma all had winning margins of over 20%. If you live there I can garauntee you that your vote makes no difference in the presedential election. Sorry, be sure to go out and vote if you want, just know that it most certainly will not make a difference in the outcome of the presidential election. If anything, it is probably worth staying home so you can honestly say you didn't vote for the winner whenever he or she does something you dislike.
I have the good fortune to live in Virginia, where in the 2008 presidential election Obama defeated McCain by a count of 1,959,532 to 1,725,005. A relatively slim 6% margin of victory. Compared to many other locations my vote could make a big difference, but how big of one?
Viriginia controlls 13 electoral votes. In the history of our country a swing of 13 votes from one side to the other would have made the difference in exactly 6 elections. Keep in mind though that 2 of those 6 events occured when there were only 138 total electoral votes being cast. So starting in 1820, when popular voting was more commonplace and there sufficient number of electoral votes to keep my 13 from being a disproportionate share, there were 4 out of 48 elections where that swing would change the outcome. From this, I assume that if my state were perfectly tied in voting and I were the only one left to vote, then there is a one in twelve chance that my vote will make a difference in the outcome of the election.
However, one vote is rather unlikely to be the difference in my state's election. In 2008 Virginia was won by a total of 234,527 votes. In that election, I would have had to vote for McCain 234,528 times in order to potentially change the outcome. It takes me about 1 hour of my time to vote. By that I mean from the time I leave my door to the time I return home from voting, 1 hour has elapsed. If my vote is worth 1 hour of my time, then the number of hours that I would have to be willing to give up in order to change the election would be 234,528 hours. That equates to 26.8 years. Would I be willing to give up 26.8 years to change the outcome of a state that had a 1/12 chance of altering the election? Would I give up 321 (26.8 x 12) years in order to garauntee that I changed the outcome of the election? No. Therefore it is not worth an hour of my time to vote.
I realize that I made a lot of assumptions, so do not be too critical. I just wanted to point out how little a single person's vote counts.
Here is an easier way to do the math:
There are 538 electors in the electoral college.
125,000,000 people voted in the last election.
Your vote was worth .0000043 electoral votes.
You would have to vote 232,000 times to change 1 electoral college vote.
If it takes you one hour to vote, that means you would have to spend 26.5 years voting to change a single vote in the electoral college.
Hope this has been enlightening and not too depressing.
- Jon
Side note: I can not think of a single vote in my life where the side I voted for either tied or won by a single vote. This includes anything from class secretary elections in grade school to presidential elections. How many can you think of?
Before you go and say that every vote counts, I will first quell that by saying that you are wrong. Since we have the electoral college, your vote does not count unless you live in a swing state. New York, California, Massachusetts, Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma all had winning margins of over 20%. If you live there I can garauntee you that your vote makes no difference in the presedential election. Sorry, be sure to go out and vote if you want, just know that it most certainly will not make a difference in the outcome of the presidential election. If anything, it is probably worth staying home so you can honestly say you didn't vote for the winner whenever he or she does something you dislike.
I have the good fortune to live in Virginia, where in the 2008 presidential election Obama defeated McCain by a count of 1,959,532 to 1,725,005. A relatively slim 6% margin of victory. Compared to many other locations my vote could make a big difference, but how big of one?
Viriginia controlls 13 electoral votes. In the history of our country a swing of 13 votes from one side to the other would have made the difference in exactly 6 elections. Keep in mind though that 2 of those 6 events occured when there were only 138 total electoral votes being cast. So starting in 1820, when popular voting was more commonplace and there sufficient number of electoral votes to keep my 13 from being a disproportionate share, there were 4 out of 48 elections where that swing would change the outcome. From this, I assume that if my state were perfectly tied in voting and I were the only one left to vote, then there is a one in twelve chance that my vote will make a difference in the outcome of the election.
However, one vote is rather unlikely to be the difference in my state's election. In 2008 Virginia was won by a total of 234,527 votes. In that election, I would have had to vote for McCain 234,528 times in order to potentially change the outcome. It takes me about 1 hour of my time to vote. By that I mean from the time I leave my door to the time I return home from voting, 1 hour has elapsed. If my vote is worth 1 hour of my time, then the number of hours that I would have to be willing to give up in order to change the election would be 234,528 hours. That equates to 26.8 years. Would I be willing to give up 26.8 years to change the outcome of a state that had a 1/12 chance of altering the election? Would I give up 321 (26.8 x 12) years in order to garauntee that I changed the outcome of the election? No. Therefore it is not worth an hour of my time to vote.
I realize that I made a lot of assumptions, so do not be too critical. I just wanted to point out how little a single person's vote counts.
Here is an easier way to do the math:
There are 538 electors in the electoral college.
125,000,000 people voted in the last election.
Your vote was worth .0000043 electoral votes.
You would have to vote 232,000 times to change 1 electoral college vote.
If it takes you one hour to vote, that means you would have to spend 26.5 years voting to change a single vote in the electoral college.
Hope this has been enlightening and not too depressing.
- Jon
Side note: I can not think of a single vote in my life where the side I voted for either tied or won by a single vote. This includes anything from class secretary elections in grade school to presidential elections. How many can you think of?
Monday, July 11, 2011
It's About Time
With my wife out of the house on business for a couple days I have rededicated myself to playing video games. However, despite my best efforts, I am no longer able to sit down and play video games for days on end like I used to. After a full day of gaming yesterday I went to sleep feeling like a waste of oxygen. Thankfully, there is no O2 shortage on the planet right now...because if there was I would just feel that much worse. Since I can no longer sit in front of my television, I figured I would get back to this blog that I last posted in exactly 4 months ago.
For all the lack of writing that has occured on this blog, I would like to confess that I spend a great deal of time thinking about things to write. The following are some options that I have considered and will perhaps spend time typing up in the next couple days:
Relationships and why I find myself disliking some genuinely nice people.
Things I don't understand (possible recurring item)
Angry drivers
I had thought of more, but they escape me at the moment
My uninformed opinion on (another possible recurring item):
NFL lockout
NBA lockout
Debt ceiling increase
Jobs and how the grass is always greener on the other side.
Funny stories from my past
So, yeah, hopefully now that I have put these topics out there for future discussion I will get around to typing some or all of them up.
- Jon
For all the lack of writing that has occured on this blog, I would like to confess that I spend a great deal of time thinking about things to write. The following are some options that I have considered and will perhaps spend time typing up in the next couple days:
Relationships and why I find myself disliking some genuinely nice people.
Things I don't understand (possible recurring item)
Angry drivers
I had thought of more, but they escape me at the moment
My uninformed opinion on (another possible recurring item):
NFL lockout
NBA lockout
Debt ceiling increase
Jobs and how the grass is always greener on the other side.
Funny stories from my past
So, yeah, hopefully now that I have put these topics out there for future discussion I will get around to typing some or all of them up.
- Jon
Friday, March 11, 2011
Anonymity
I spent the last week mulling over whether or not I wanted this blog to be anonymous or not. Like any sensible nerd, I weighed my the advantages and disadvantages of each and eventually came down on one side of the fence that I had temporarily sat on.
Advantages:
The advantage of being anonymous is that I can really speak my mind regarding controversial topics without ever having my views cause me reprocussions.
Disadvantages:
My views may have less weight. I consider myself as having an above average knowledge on certain topics and if I am anonymous, then there may be less people taking my opinions seriously.
No one may ever find this blog. While I am not writing with anyone in mind, it may be nice for friends, relatives, and potential employers to search my name and find what are hopefully well written opinion pieces.
My Decision:
I decided to edit my profile page to include my name, date of birth, job, etc. The main factor behind this decision is that I do not believe that I have anything to hide. I will think through my posts and say what I believe in a straightforward manner that hopefully will not contain much rhetoric. As such if someone I know stubles accross this blog, then they should not be shocked by anything they find or think of me differently for anything that I say.
- Jon
*Now that the formalities are out of the way, actual posts are to come.
Advantages:
The advantage of being anonymous is that I can really speak my mind regarding controversial topics without ever having my views cause me reprocussions.
Disadvantages:
My views may have less weight. I consider myself as having an above average knowledge on certain topics and if I am anonymous, then there may be less people taking my opinions seriously.
No one may ever find this blog. While I am not writing with anyone in mind, it may be nice for friends, relatives, and potential employers to search my name and find what are hopefully well written opinion pieces.
My Decision:
I decided to edit my profile page to include my name, date of birth, job, etc. The main factor behind this decision is that I do not believe that I have anything to hide. I will think through my posts and say what I believe in a straightforward manner that hopefully will not contain much rhetoric. As such if someone I know stubles accross this blog, then they should not be shocked by anything they find or think of me differently for anything that I say.
- Jon
*Now that the formalities are out of the way, actual posts are to come.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
General Purpose
Readers,
I have tried to write several times now why I am starting this blog. However, each time that I try to come up with a good explanation I realize that I am falling very short of truely expressing my opinions. Ironically, this is the best reason for me to start blogging. Clear writing usually reflects clear thinking and I do not have much experience writing clearly or concisely.
Here are my goals for this blog:
1. Self-improvement. I expect to be entering a business/professional type of environement in the coming years and need to learn to write concisely and clearly. This is something I do not do well.
2. Self-reflection. I usually see multiple sides of issues and have trouble figuring out my opinions. By writing down my thoughts I hope that I will be able to clarify what I believe.
3. Enterainment. Maybe someone out there will find this funny, interesting, insightful, etc. I will try to be entertaining, but that is not necessarily the goal.
4. Consistency. I will try to add to this once a week.
- Jon
I have tried to write several times now why I am starting this blog. However, each time that I try to come up with a good explanation I realize that I am falling very short of truely expressing my opinions. Ironically, this is the best reason for me to start blogging. Clear writing usually reflects clear thinking and I do not have much experience writing clearly or concisely.
Here are my goals for this blog:
1. Self-improvement. I expect to be entering a business/professional type of environement in the coming years and need to learn to write concisely and clearly. This is something I do not do well.
2. Self-reflection. I usually see multiple sides of issues and have trouble figuring out my opinions. By writing down my thoughts I hope that I will be able to clarify what I believe.
3. Enterainment. Maybe someone out there will find this funny, interesting, insightful, etc. I will try to be entertaining, but that is not necessarily the goal.
4. Consistency. I will try to add to this once a week.
- Jon
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